[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N30W EQ47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 37W-40W...AND FROM 2S-5N
BETWEEN 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC NEAR 29N70W ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW
PERSISTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ABOUT ENTER NW GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
QUIKSCAT EARLIER TODAY INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20-25 KT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...WITH STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IN TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE JET STREAM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES N OF AREA DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE
TRADE INVERSION...MAINLY FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
AS WELL AS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER
TODAY SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC KEEPS A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N70W DOMINATES THE WEST CENTRAL ATLC. A FRONT
SKIRTS 30N/31N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 35W FROM 20N
TO 27N IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24
HOURS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 SFC HIGH OVER PORTUGAL.
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A JET
STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS JET FROM N
SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
MUNDELL



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