[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N22W EQ33W 1S45W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 30 TO 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF TODAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MAINLY 20 KT OR LESS...BUT WITH 25
KT EASTERLIES IN THE EXTREME SE GULF.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF AS OBSERVED BY IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE
ENE...WHICH IS COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF.  THE
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING FORCED BY A MID-UPPER
TROUGH OVER NE MEXICO AND THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
NORTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST GULF THROUGH TOMORROW.  BY TUESDAY EVENING...A NEW COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING THE EXTREME NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM CUBA OVER TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO
ALONG THE TAIL END OF STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE US AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  ANOTHER REGION OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NMI NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHER THAN THOSE AREAS...THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF UP TO 20 KT.  THERE ARE ENHANCED
TRADEWINDS AROUND 25 KT JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA.  AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
DAY...WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 KT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO COLD FRONTS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDED ALONG 32N65W DOWN TO 28N78W AT 21 UTC.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN WITH THIS FEATURE.  THE SECOND
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N57W TO 25N69W AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN TO
CUBA AS A STATIONARY FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NMI OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  A THIRD COLD FRONT IS
SEEN REACHING INTO OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FROM 32N20W TO
29N23W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS OBSERVED AT 28N47W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10-15N AND 50-60W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE US AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ARE GENERALLY
EAST TO NORTHEAST UP TO 20 KT.  AS A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF OF THE US EAST COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTENED AND WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 25 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES-FLORIDA BY
TOMORROW NIGHT.

$$
LANDSEA






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