[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 3N20W TO 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W...
TO 1S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE WESTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST
JUST SOUTH OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 25N89W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND BEYOND.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THROUGH 31N76W 28N77W 26N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
FROM 26N80W ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 25N83W 25N86W TO 23N89W
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 26N TO THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
15N60W AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW.
NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 10N NORTHWARD.
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N19W...
APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND PORTUGAL/SPAIN. A 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N18W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES OUT
OF THE LOW CENTER. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N11W
ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST TO 25N16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 27N45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 32N41W 27N58W COLD FRONT.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 27N58W TO 26N70W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 27N75W AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N/30N ALONG 81W.

$$
MT


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