[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N40W 1S50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W-19W...
AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 28N99W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 22N90W 19N95W THEN CONTINUES
INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 21N100W.  A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE IS
E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 27N81W 24N85W 22N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING E.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE NLY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE SLY 25 KT OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S OF THE SQUALL LINE.   IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE NW GULF.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF GULF
AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO TRAVERSE S FLORIDA AND
CONTINUE TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 29N43W 27N55W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 27N65W.
A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER W TO 30N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  AN AREA OF
GALE WINDS IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W
TO 80W...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A
1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W.
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
AND W AFRICA ALONG 32N11W 27N12W 23N16W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 35W-50W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 20W-35W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
AND E OF 20W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO TRINIDAD
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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