[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N8W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO 3N55W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...
FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AT THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA. THE TAIL END OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N70W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N80W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO
BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACCORDING TO LOW CLOUDS IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N77W 27N70W 29N61W 29N63W BEYOND 32N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURVES ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON
TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 33N30W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 996 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 33N28W ALSO. THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 26N24W 22N36W 22N44W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N44W TO 24N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE LINE THROUGH 30N20W
25N24W 21N30 W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE WITHIN
90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N14W 25N20W 20N30W 17N40W
15N50W 13N60W. A RIDGE GOES FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 35N47W TO TO 28N54W AND 25N67W.

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net