[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N35W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
16W-26W FROM EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 25W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. SWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA S ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMPICO MEXICO. RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 27N.
OTHERWISE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA S
OF 27N W OF 90W. SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE A 100-110 KT JET
OVER THE NW GULF FROM 27N97W TO SE LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
FROM ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N75W N TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS
LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. SLY WINDS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL INTO WESTERN CUBA. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS USUAL...POCKETS OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N COVERING THE W OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 31N38W TO SW TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 30N44W TO
27N52W. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 29N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH. BROAD SW TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. AN 85-95 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM
WITH AXIS FROM 12N44W 22N24W TO THE WESTERN SAHARAN COAST.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET
AXIS...WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE JET.  A
SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N21W TO 24N28W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND NW OF THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS



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