[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N18W 3N26W 1N37W 2N46W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-33W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N8W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 6N15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
COVER THE ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF
N OF 23N TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE LEADING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
27N91W CONTINUING TO 23N96W A WEAK OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED 1008
MB LOW IS JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. A SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA
SW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A SQUALL LINE
CONSISTING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD
OF THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N89W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA WEAKENING OVER SE GEORGIA
CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. POLAR JET REMAINS
OVER THE N GULF COAST AND MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH
EXTENDS N OF A LINE FROM OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 22N94W ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF
120 KT WITHIN THE JET ARE OVER THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N FROM
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
TONIGHT AND GIVE THE FIRST BOUNDARY AN EXTRA PUSH...THEN MERGING
AND MOVING INTO THE E GULF AND FLORIDA LATE TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 76W INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS
FAR N AS CUBA MOSTLY AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FARTHER E...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE CONFLUENT AND THUS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN
SOME PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY N OF 14N E OF 74W INCLUDING THE
PORTIONS OF LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO BEYOND 32N
ALONG 76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-60W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING
SW TO 29N54W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR 30N60W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N39W ALONG TO
26N49W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W
ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W TO JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS
AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 110 KT IS WITHIN 175/275 NM
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 17N40W 25N23W ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 29N13W. THIS UPPER
FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N41W N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W.

$$
WALLACE






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