[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N26W 4N39W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
7N40W TO 6N45W AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 2N15W TO
3N18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF
N OF 24N ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO
24N90W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 22N93W INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 88W. POLAR JET
REMAINS OVER THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N AND MERGING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS N OF A LINE FROM 23N91W ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE W ATLC. MAXIMUM UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KT WITHIN THE JET ARE OVER THE NE GULF COAST
N OF 29N E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ACROSS FLORIDA. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 24N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR
MERIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TODAY WITH A
REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS EXTREME S GULF AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THEN BACK NORTH ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E CUBA THEN CONTINUING N INTO THE W ATLC.
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR N AS CUBA MOSTLY AS THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE REGION. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N77W EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 28N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND WITHIN
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLC REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS E CUBA
TO BEYOND 32N67W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE REGION
NEAR 33N38W SW ALONG 25N45W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N65W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 27N40W TO 25N49W THEN
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 26N54W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
75 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S
OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND COVERING THE AREA FROM
45W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 105 KT IS WITHIN
350/400 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 17N41W 26N25W
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 27N13W.
THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN
225/250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N39W OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N18W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net