[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N15W 6N19W 3N27W 3N43W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 8W-22W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E HALF OF THE U.S. IS
MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC REMAINING IN THE GULF N OF 26N ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 23N81W TO 24N88W WHERE IT IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 22N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF
86W INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT N OF 24N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W AND GIVING MOST OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUING NE INTO THE W ATLC.
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 65W. COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING SW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N60W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N36W SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N52W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 12N70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW
NEAR 26N38W E ALONG 25N36W THEN SW TO 22N38W TO 23N46W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ARE N OF 27N FROM
30W-37W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE
FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR
34N48W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICS AND CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY N TO OVER THE E ATLC TO THE
MERIDA ISLANDS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT IS WITHIN
350/400 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N30W 31N17W
ACROSS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 28N23W INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 130 TO 150 KT WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N36W TO 31N21W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N46W
ALONG 21N37W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 23N17W.

$$
WALLACE


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