[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N17W 5N26W 2N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N36W TO 2N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 44W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
THAT COVERED THE GULF LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO OVER THE FAR E
GULF TONIGHT E OF 84W. A PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N80W TO
24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 26N E OF 84W INTO THE W ATLC
AND ACROSS W CUBA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND COUPLED WITH CONFLUENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS PRODUCING
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N ACROSS THE
ENTIRE N GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS REMARKABLE
CLEAR TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER MOST
OF THE GULF WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE GULF EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF 17N.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 63W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N63W
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE E ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N28W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 27N33W TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW
NEAR 17N49W TO 12N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF
THE FRONT ABOVE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES.
ABROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS AND IS
AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT IS WITHIN 250/300 NM IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N40W 29N19W ACROSS TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 32N9W INCLUDING THE CANARY AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 130 TO 150 KT WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 25N32W TO 31N16W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N46W ALONG
24N26W TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.

$$
WALLACE




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