[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 2N35W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
11W-14W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 4W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WITH SMALL CLUSTERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER THE N GULF NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ALONG 24N FROM 80W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF
E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH CONFLUENCE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N FROM 84W-94W WHILE THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 84W REMAINS
REMARKABLE CLEAR THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC OVER THE GULF W OF 90W WITH ANOTHER FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF 14N W OF 83W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM 60W-80W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N62W
EXTENDING SW TO 28N70W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL AS S OF
30N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
W ATLC THROUGH 32N28W ALONG 27N40W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N49W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 12N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
E OF THE FRONT ABOVE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NW OF THE
AZORES. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N19W WITH
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS AND IS
AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC NE BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 300/350 NM IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N40W 30N20W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 32N9W INCLUDING THE CANARY AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE N
WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N45W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.

$$
WALLACE



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