[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 5W AND 15W AND BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE...ORIGINATING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...DOMINATES
THE UPPER LEVELS. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF THIN BROKEN
CIRRUS...IS STREAMING E ACROSS THE RIDGE N OF LINE 22N97W 26N90W
25N81W WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NOTED S OF THE SAME LINE. AT THE
LOW LEVELS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA AND IS LIFTING N AND NE WITH TIME. BROKEN LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH CONVECTION
FLARING NEAR 30N87W.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N76W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE AREA E OF 70W
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE AT 14N67W. BROKEN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 70W. AT THE
LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE IS PUSHING LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...W ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 12N WITH THE CLOUDS TURNING NW OVER THE AREA W OF
80W.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA W OF 73W WITH BROKEN
CIRRUS SPREADING E ACROSS THE RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED
ALONG 32N68W 26N70W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS ALONG 32N61W
26N74W BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TO 25.5N80W...HIGH PRES IS NEAR
31N71W 1025 MB. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE ACTIVITY IN
DECREASING AT THE MOMENT.

AN TROPICAL UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 34N33W AND 18N47W AND 14N61W. DRY
UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM W AND WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF THE CYCLONE
AT 18N47W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N44W
25N70W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE AFRICAN COAST OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC E OF 40W WITH A DENSE MOISTURE PLUME WITHIN 420 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 8N43W 21N26W TO BEYOND 35N2W.

$$
NELSON




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