[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W 3N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS SWD INTO
MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN GULF. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. RADAR
INDICATES A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS W
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING NEARLY ALL OF THE
GULF. UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N77W N TO WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE TAIL
END OF AN ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLAND INTO
THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM ARUBA
ALONG 15N80W TO W CUBA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF  OF 65W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 32N52W SW TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A NARROW RIDGE SEPARATES THIS TROUGH FROM
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
32N36W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N38W TO 22N48W.
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH HAS AXIS FROM 32N22W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 23N38W. A 95-105 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N45W TO 25N23W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
115-120 KT THEN CONTINUES TO 32N11W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE ADVECTED NWD WITHIN 400 NM SE OF THE JET. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 46W-60W.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC S OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 30N59W WHERE IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N68W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING.

$$
DGS

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