[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N27W 2N41W EQUATOR47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ADVERTISED STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR IS UNDERWAY. AS OF 09Z...
A DUAL FRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SRN
FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 28N83W
25N91W 20N97W THEN NWD UP THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE NRN
FRONT...OR SECONDARY SURGE...IS MOVING RAPIDLY SE ANALYZED FROM
THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NRN MEXICO ALONG 31N87W 25N97W AT
09Z. SINCE THE SURGE IS MOVING SO QUICKLY IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL MERGE WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS ARE
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONTS. THIS STRONG FLOW
WILL ADVECT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
THE GULF...ESPECIALLY THE SE PART. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FT...TODAY AND
TOMORROW AREA-WIDE. A SWATH OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA SWWD TO 24N87W TRIGGERED BY
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. PATCHY CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SE OF THE SRN FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD CENTERED NEAR
16N74W. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WV IMAGES ESPECIALLY E OF
70W WHERE THE FLOW ALOFT IS CONFLUENT DUE TO A HIGHLY ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF STREAMS OF
MOISTURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING TO ABOUT 72W. ONLY
PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIB ON THE SLY
BRANCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. ELY TRADES ARE STILL ON THE
STRONG SIDE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
WINDS...GALE FORCE...WILL BE OUT OF THE N BEGINNING EARLY WED IN
THE NW CARIB BEHIND AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT ATTEMPTED TO BECOME A
SUBTROPICAL STORM IS CENTERED NEAR 24N39W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY A
0808 UTC ASCAT PASS. HOWEVER...THIS GALE EVENT IS FORECAST TO
COME TO AN END IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
FILL. CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 150 NM PRIMARILY E OF THE
CENTER BUT EVEN THERE CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY WARMER THAN -60
C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED WSW
MOTION...STEERED BY A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE...UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SOONER. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING...EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE EXTREME W ATLANTIC FROM 32N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. NARROW
LINE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN
78W-79W. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY SURGE TO FOLLOW. SEE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATUS OF THESE FRONTS.
AN UPPER JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT...ORIGINATES NEAR
10N56W AND EXTENDS NE THRU 21N35W 25N15W. WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA
WITHIN 600 NM SSE OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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