[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W AT THE SIERRA LEONE COAST
TO 5N20W TO 3N37W TO EQ48W AT THE NE BRAZIL COAST.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED UP TO 90 NMI NORTH OF
THE AXIS AND UP TO 180 NMI SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 13W TO 28W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST WITH 90 NMI OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
COVER THE GULF WITH PEAK OBSERVED CURRENTLY OF 40 KT FROM AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE WESTERN GULF.  MODERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION TO BE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ALSO SEEN
NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND UP TO 100
KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE POLAR
JET.  STRONG SURFACE NORTHERLIES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN STRAITS.  BY
THURSDAY...ALL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD SUBSIDE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING TODAY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENT RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE EASTERLY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT WITH SOME 25 KT WINDS
NORTH OF COLUMBIA.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...CONVECTION AND SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  N TO NE WINDS IN
THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN MAY REACH GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT BRISK WINDS OF 25 TO
30 KT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NORTHEASTWARD TO 30N75W.  SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 20 KT AND WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ARE UP TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW.  A SECOND
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB NEAR 23N42W
WHICH HAS GALES IN ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  GALES IN THIS LOW
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE REMAINDER OF THE N ATLANTIC REGION IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG 30N.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND REACH ABOUT 65W AT
30N WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 58W THURSDAY NIGHT.  VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE 540
THICKNESS LINE PARALLELING 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HOWEVER...NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FRONT IN OUR ATLANTIC REGION.

$$
LANDSEA






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