[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N10W 3N15W 2N20W 1N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S/4S ALONG 45W.
A TROUGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 7N26W 4N28W 1N29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 36W.
OTHER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.
THIS TROUGH IS GUIDING THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT THE FIRST
COLD AIRMASS OF THE YEAR 2008 TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE FROM JUST WEST
OF BERMUDA TO LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...CROSSING CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO 21N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
BORDER OF EASTERN GUATEMALA/WESTERN HONDURAS...TO WESTERN
GUATEMALA. THE FRONT IS INTERRUPTED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 17N96W IN MEXICO TO 20N99W 23N102W AND 26N105W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEHIND THE FRONT.
A WARNING FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXISTS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHWEST OF 16N85W 21N78W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
SECTIONS TO THE CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 12N
TO 18N INCLUDING SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...
AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO
15N80W AND 10N83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WITH A RIDGE FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N54W.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO BECOME A NAMED
SUBTROPICAL STORM DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN WATERS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS 1015 MB NEAR 22N50W...AND FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER
24 HOURS. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
29N50W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT
ARE FORECAST WITHIN 480 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW/TROUGH
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE LOW/TROUGH.

$$
MT



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