[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N10W ALONG 3N18W
2N30W 1N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2.5S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W
AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS IS GRIPPING THE REGION TONIGHT ON THE
S SIDE OF A VERY HEALTHY 1046 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. TEMPS ARE
ALREADY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF THE N GULF COAST AND
IN THE 40'S ACROSS EXTREME S FLA...WHICH IS A RARE EVENT. GALE
FORCE NLY WINDS CONTINUE S OF 27N E OF 90W CREATING DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 18 FT IN S PORTIONS. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF
28N...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY COOL STABLE AIRMASS. SFC WINDS WILL
RELAX FROM W TO E THU AND FRI AS THE STRONG HIGH SHIFTS E AND
WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO VEER ELY...GREATLY
MODIFYING THE AIRMASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG
21N77W 16N85W. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 00Z CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE
FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW IS PULLING DOWN QUITE CHILLY
AIR FOR THE REGION AS READINGS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60'S F IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDINESS/SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
81W-84W ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT...MUCH MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PREVAILS IN
NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE E CARIB FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
63W-70W. THE NLY GALE FORCE WIND EVENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 32N64W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND WELL SW INTO THE W CARIB. STRONG NWLY
WINDS...JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA...ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT
ADVECTING AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD DENSE LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
ATTEMPTED TO BE SUBTROPICAL SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS STILL APPARENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NOW AS A N-S OPEN TROUGH WITH NO
CONVECTION. THIS WEAK FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE W AND WILL MERGE
WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E AND CNTRL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N36W. A SW TO WLY JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN ORIGINATING JUST E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BASE NEAR 15N40W EXTENDING NE ALONG 23N30W 26N15W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET IS GENERATING ABUNDANT
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITH 540 NM E/SE
OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net