[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N23W
2N33W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-26W AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS IS GRIPPING THE REGION THIS EARLY
MORNING ON THE S SIDE OF A VERY HEALTHY 1046 MB HIGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20'S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE N
GULF COAST AND IN THE 30'S ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLA...WHICH IS A
RARE EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW TEMPS AND BRISK NLY
WINDS IS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20'S. GALE FORCE
NLY WINDS CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 90W CREATING DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FT. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE
LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 28N...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY
COOL STABLE AIRMASS. SFC WINDS WILL RELAX FROM W TO E TODAY AND
FRI AS THE STRONG HIGH SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FLOW TO VEER ELY...GREATLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BRINGING TEMPS
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED BUT SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED
FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N76W 15N84W. AN EARLIER QSCAT
PASS CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FLOW IS PULLING DOWN QUITE CHILLY AIR FOR THE REGION AS READINGS
ARE FALLING INTO THE 50'S F IN THE N PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NLY GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
AN END IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDINESS/SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEEPER IN NATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 81W-84W ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT...A SFC TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 68W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 32N63W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W AND WELL SW INTO THE W CARIB. STRONG NWLY
WINDS...JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA...ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT
ADVECTING AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD DENSE LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
ATTEMPTED TO BE SUBTROPICAL SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS STILL APPARENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NOW AS A N-S OPEN TROUGH ALONG 53W/54W
FROM 21N-30N WITH NO CONVECTION. THIS WEAK FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE E AND CNTRL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W. A
SW TO WLY JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN ORIGINATING
JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE NEAR 15N40W EXTENDING NE ALONG
23N30W 26N15W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET IS
GENERATING ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS WITH 540 NM E/SE OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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