[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W EQ40W 2S45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
11W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD AIRMASS IS GRIPPING THE REGION TODAY WITH OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF
29N AND W OF 84W.  WINDS ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE OVER THE E
GULF E OF 87W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT WINDS
FROM THE NE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE U.S. COASTLINE FROM S
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RANGE FROM THE MID 30'S TO THE MID
50'S.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING TO THE E AND SE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SLOWING IN FORWARD
SPEED.  IT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N71W 16N80W
12N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 82W-83W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE
FRONT.  WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE.  SIMILAR
WINDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  WINDS ARE ELY 10-15
KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 66W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 75W-88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 20N70W.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH
NLY WINDS 20-30 KT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N37W.  A PLUME OF BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER
LOW FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 10W-35W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND REACH 50W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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