[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N22W 1N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO NW OF ACAPULCO ENTERING
THE GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO OVER THE SE US NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. THIS IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
IN THE GULF AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE E GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL E OF THE
AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE E/CENTRAL
GULF FROM 84W-91W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
EXTENDING INTO THE THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN FROM A 1038 MB HIGH
OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SE TO S
WINDS. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
NEXT MAJOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY HAS WEAKENED AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 16N78W TO OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 74W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL. STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE FRONT
MANLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N47W ALONG
25N52W SLOWING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
25N77W REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA
AND INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAKENING JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ALONG 29N61W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF THE FRONT. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N39W EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 14N25W TO BEYOND
32N29W. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 24W-32W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N27W.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net