[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W 2N38W EQUATOR AT 47W
INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 35W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA EAST
OF 7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RIDGING ANCHORED ON A DEPARTING 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NE OF
BERMUDA DOMINATES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT ELY TO
SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. FRAGMENTS OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE ELY WINDS ARE
BRINGING IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
AND NOW EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 75W. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE NW GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT 1.64
INCHES OF RAIN IN SAN JUAN SATURDAY EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND BETWEEN THE SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE SEEN OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALL
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN
ASCAT FROM AROUND 0300 UTC SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF
19N AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NE OF BERMUDAS
COVERING THE ENTIRE WEST ATLC AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A
DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N41W THEN
CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO JUST N OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A VAST AREA OF BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT WITH NE SURFACE
WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 29N38W TO 19N40W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS 23N40W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE CENTER OF
THE LOW ON SATELLITE PHOTOS. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EAST
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 35N17W MOVING EWD.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WEST
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 53W-61W N OF 20N. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ALSO BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FURTHER EAST...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 42W-62W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 32W/33W N OF 17N. A PLUME OF BROKEN JET
CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE AZORES. THE FLOW IN THIS REGION
IS VERY DIFLUENT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR








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