[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N23W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 41W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE NE GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GULF TUE INTO WED. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SE TO E WINDS. THIS IS BANKING LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
OVER LOUISIANA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SE SOUTH
AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER HIGH OVER GEORGIA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 77W
WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM
63W-77W. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N69W WITH THE 1025 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN
66W-71W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 60W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N53W TO
21N58W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N35W TO 20N31W AND A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE THESE
UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERATING OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
42W-54W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 28N43W TO 21N57W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 41W FROM 21N-27N WITH A WEAK 1018 MB
LOW NEAR 27N41W AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net