[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 1N7W 3N15W 3N36W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER EXTENDING S TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FRONT W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BECOMING
STATIONARY LATER TODAY AND MOVING BACK N AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE GULF ON LATE THU. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE S AND NE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FAR SE US AND THE E
GULF. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS WEAKER SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW.
SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N89W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT REMAINS OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A
RELATIVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING
IN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE AREA REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH
SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING S HISPANIOLA AND ALL OF JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
75W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N
FROM 56W-75W AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N46W TO 25N43W AND IS
GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 40W-47W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE E GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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