[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N14W TO 5N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W...
TO 2S/3S ALONG 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
TO 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 103W AND 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW GOES FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IN BETWEEN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A COLD FRONT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...FORMERLY A GALE CENTER...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO COASTAL WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 28N84W. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST STILL
INDICATES 25 KT TO 30 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WITH 15 FT SEAS. WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM
8 FT TO 12 FT ARE WITH THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LOW-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM
A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE AREA. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST INDICATES EASTERLY WINDS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT AND 13 FT
SEAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW EAST OF 70W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 76W...SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...AND NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 83W AND 87W GOING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W 27N60W TO
24N70W...A WARM FRONT 24N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ALONG THE 33N50W 24N70W 25N79W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N30W
TO A 21N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N47W TO 12N54W.

$$
MT


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