[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N13W 3N31W 2N42W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
13W-25W. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
6N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC AND
GIVES THE ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS FROM 90 TO 110 KTS COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N. A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 22N94W
WITH A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE US DOMINATES THE GULF. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM EXTREME S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W CUBA NEAR HAVANA. BROKEN TO
MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT
THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA E OF
SANTA CLARA TO 21N82W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTING TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO TO THE E COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 21N61W
ALONG 26N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA E OF SANTA CLARA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE
US E COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
30N55W COVERING THE AREA W OF 40W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN
THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 23W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING S ALONG 20N25W TO
13N35W THEN W TO 12N43W WHERE IT BECOMES A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 15N56W OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO TO THE E COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A JETSTREAM WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS
ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N47W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICS S OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SECOND
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 13N40W TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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