[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015 MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1570 MILES...2530 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA
WIND VELOCITY IS HOLDING STEADY WHILE TRAVERSING OVER AN AREA
WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW
SHOWS A LARGER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE STORM THAN
YESTERDAY. BERTHA IS ALSO MAINTAINING CONVECTION NW OF THE
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
S OF 15N IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 23N MOVING
W 20 KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N WITH
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE ALONG WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER INLAND CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER N OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
77W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER JAMAICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 17N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD AND INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE E PACIFIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SRN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 88W-96W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 9N28W 16N32W 11N40W
5N53W ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST TO 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SELY
SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 93W-99W MOSTLY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY
OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 25N98W TO 20N97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ERN
EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING MAINLY NLY FLOW W OF 87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...W OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W. A 1026 MB
HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N59W. ANOTHER 1030
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO 27N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 38W-48W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 16N27W.

$$
FORMOSA





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