[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 47.0W AT 2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS EXPERIENCING
SOME SHEAR AND HAS CONVECTION W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
46W-49W. EXPECTED GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE
FAVORABLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CYCLONIC TURN EXTENDING A
LITTLE N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 28W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 24N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE
REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO N OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAHAMAS FROM 2123N-25N BETWEEN 72W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 7N30W 8N40W 11N47W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SELY
SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 93W-99W MOSTLY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY
OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 25N98W TO 20N97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING
MAINLY NWLY FLOW W OF 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER
MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
FLORIDA AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER INLAND CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN
77W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN
77W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
W OF 72W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS N
OF HISPANIOLA...CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 61W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
78W-80W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N59W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
37N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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