[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KBRO 211721
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY MOVING INTO OPEN GULF WATERS AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
WHILE GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

.AT 1000 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST
FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOLLY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OR EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-212230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.HU.A.0001.080721T1721Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY...AS WELL AS THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINE INTERESTS NEED TO BEGIN PREPARING FOR DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. OWNERS OF LARGER VESSELS SHOULD THINK ABOUT AVOIDING
THE STORM AND SMALLER BOAT OWNERS SHOULD THINK ABOUT HOW THEY WILL
TIE UP AND PROTECT THEIR VESSELS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY MID DAY TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 1.5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST DATA INDICATES
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING..WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT AND THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 PERCENT. PLEASE
NOTE THAT THESE VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO INCREASE AS DOLLY APPROACHES
THE AREA.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 430 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ251-256-257-212230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.HU.A.0001.080721T1721Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND...BAYVIEW AND LAGUNA VISTA...AND ALL OF KENEDY COUNTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS VERY
IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE YOUR
GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 2
TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY
AND 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL TO
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING
ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT AND THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5 PERCENT. PLEASE
NOTE THAT THESE VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO INCREASE AS DOLLY APPROACHES
THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS MAY MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FINAL
TRACK AND SPEED OF DOLLY MAY GREATLY AFFECT FINAL RAINFALL TOTALS
AND LOCATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING.

A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD KINGSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI MAY
REDUCE OVERALL STORM RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE A TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO MAY INCREASE STORM RAINFALL TOTALS.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...BEACH EROSION...

IF DOLLY TAKES A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...SEVERE BEACH
EROSION WOULD AFFECT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
IF DOLLY TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SIMILAR TO HURRICANE BRET IN
1999...THERE WOULD BE LESS BEACH EROSION...IF ANY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 430 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ253>255-212230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.HI.A.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE INLAND SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
AND MCALLEN.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS VERY
IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE YOUR
GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

FOR PERSONS WITH INTERESTS NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE OR ON SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND: THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD
REACH 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
AT PORT ISABEL. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND
THE LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AND 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR
LOWER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT AND THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS MAY MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FINAL
TRACK AND SPEED OF DOLLY MAY GREATLY AFFECT FINAL RAINFALL TOTALS
AND LOCATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING.

A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD KINGSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI MAY
REDUCE OVERALL STORM RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE A TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO MAY INCREASE STORM RAINFALL TOTALS.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 430 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ248>250-252-212230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TI.A.0001.080723T0600Z-080724T1800Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO GRANDE CITY...HEBBRONVILLE...
FALFURRIAS AND ZAPATA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS VERY
IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE YOUR
GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS MAY PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MORE EXTENSIVE AND SEVERE FLOODING MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FINAL TRACK AND SPEED OF DOLLY MAY
GREATLY AFFECT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS AND LOCATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT
INLAND FLOODING.

A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD KINGSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI MAY
REDUCE OVERALL STORM RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE A TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY INCREASE
STORM RAINFALL TOTALS.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 PERCENT AND THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2 PERCENT.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE RAINBANDS FROM DOLLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 430 PM CDT.

$$

MILLER/GOLDSMITH/SPEECE


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