[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KBRO 212236
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...

.AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST OR ABOUT
420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE
REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-220430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
536 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION RADIATING WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER COULD AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AS SOON AS LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD BE FELT IN
THE FORM OF GUSTY SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS ON THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINE INTERESTS NEED TO BEGIN PREPARING FOR DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. OWNERS OF LARGER VESSELS SHOULD THINK ABOUT AVOIDING
THE STORM AND SMALLER BOAT OWNERS SHOULD THINK ABOUT HOW THEY
WILL TIE UP AND PROTECT THEIR VESSELS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY MID DAY TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH
1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

CURRENT FORECAST DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DOLLY TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS GREATER
THAN 70 PERCENT FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS UP TO 20 PERCENT.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ251-256-257-220430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
536 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE EFFECTS OF
THE STORM COULD BE FELT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN BANDS ARE RADIATING WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS
EVENING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT
ISABEL...BAYVIEW...AND PORT MANSFIELD...AS WELL AS KENEDY COUNTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS
VERY IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE
YOUR GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 2
TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT
PORT ISABEL. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND
THE LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AND 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR
LOWER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT...AND BECOME
NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DATA INDICATES
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DOLLY TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS NEAR 70 PERCENT FROM
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS
10 TO 15 PERCENT.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 CDT.

$$

TXZ253>255-220430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HI.A.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
536 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY'S CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION TODAY MAY
BRING THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE POPULATED
AREAS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY A BIT SOONER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY
ARRIVE TOWARD THE COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN STRONGER
RAIN BANDS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS
VERY IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE
YOUR GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

FOR PERSONS WITH INTERESTS NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE OR ON SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND: THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND
COULD REACH 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 1.5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL AT PORT ISABEL. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND
AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 2.5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AND 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SURGE COULD BE HIGHER OR
LOWER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DOLLY.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST DATA INDICATES
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE IN GUSTS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING
TOWARD EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF
GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE BY VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY IS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT...AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT...THROUGH THURSDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS MAY MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FINAL
TRACK AND SPEED OF DOLLY MAY GREATLY AFFECT FINAL RAINFALL TOTALS
AND LOCATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING.

A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD KINGSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI MAY
REDUCE OVERALL STORM RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE A TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO MAY INCREASE STORM RAINFALL TOTALS.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ248>250-252-220430-
/O.CON.KBRO.TI.A.0001.080723T0600Z-080724T1800Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
536 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY'S CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION TODAY MAY
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
A BIT SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE MAY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING IN STRONGER RAIN BANDS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOLLY MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...SO AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT IS
VERY IMPORTANT. TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGE...REINFORCE
YOUR GARAGE DOOR...AND COVER WINDOWS WITH PLYWOOD. IN THE EVENT OF
EVACUATIONS...MAKE SURE YOUR AUTOMOBILE IS FULLY FUELED... AND IN
GOOD WORKING CONDITION...BEFORE LEAVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
SEE HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/BRO/PNSBRO.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY
MOVE INTO WESTERN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS MAY
PRODUCE NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS STARTING EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MORE EXTENSIVE AND SEVERE FLOODING MAY OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FINAL TRACK AND SPEED
OF DOLLY MAY GREATLY AFFECT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS AND LOCATIONS
OF SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING.

A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD KINGSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI MAY
REDUCE OVERALL STORM RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE A TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY INCREASE
STORM RAINFALL TOTALS.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OUT TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS IS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT...AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PERCENT...THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE RAINBANDS FROM DOLLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

$$




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