[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KBRO 221639
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY SOON TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND NOW ON TRACK FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR FRESHWATER AND RIVER FLOODING...

.AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION
WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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BROOKS-
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...ALONG
WITH RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
SOON AFTER LANDFALL WEDNESDAY...SHOULD KEEP ONLY TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN BROOKS COUNTY AS DOLLY CREEPS SLOWLY INLAND.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BROOKS COUNTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED
TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY EVENING. WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN OUTER RAIN BANDS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
MAY ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM IS 70 PERCENT...WHILE THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINS AROUND 5 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN NOON
AND 3 PM...AND COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED AFTER SUNSET.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EARLY
RAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN RAINS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER CELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 130 PM CDT.

$$

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-222000-
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LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

OUTER BANDS OF DOLLY ARE RACING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS AND WILL
REACH THE LAGUNA MADRE BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN STRONGER CELLS.
SOME LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR.

OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS...OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY
EARLY EVENING AND LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS AND SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TOWARD 5 FEET OR HIGHER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY
INCREASE RAPIDLY ABOVE 10 FEET THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN OR NEAR THE WATERS OUT TO 60 NM.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINE INTERESTS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN
BAY...AS WELL AS THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM PORT BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN
BAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE OUT IN THE GULF
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH THE DURATION OF DOLLY'S WINDS AND SEAS. THOSE IN PORT
SHOULD FINISH MOVING THEIR CRAFT TO SAFE STORAGE OR SECURELY TYING
DOWN BOATS AND RAISING THEM SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THE WATER LEVEL.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH
1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER
SLOWING COULD RAISE POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.

...WINDS...

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN FEEDER BANDS
BEYOND 20 NM OUT THROUGH NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OUT AND
AFTER 7 PM ELSEWHERE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
WATERS EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD AND POINTS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DOLLY APPROACHES AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREAS...WITH PROBABILITY NOW ABOVE 90 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS NOW BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN STRONGER FEEDER BANDS
FROM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS FOR INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR BANDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE IS SCHEDULED TO BE UPDATED AROUND 130 PM CDT.

$$

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KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

INITIAL FEEDER BANDS WILL RACE ASHORE FROM SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TO
BROWNSVILLE BEFORE NOON...AND ANOTHER BAND WILL REACH INTO WILLACY
AND THE REMAINDER OF CAMERON COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. EACH
BAND WILL INCLUDE A 15 MINUTE OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AS WELL AS BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST BELOW 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE LATER TODAY WHILE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BENDING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
LATER TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT. IT IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN FOR AT LEAST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS NEAR THE
COAST...INCLUDING PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...AND PORT
MANSFIELD.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE
PREPAREDNESS AND PROTECTION. MOBILE HOME AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EVACUATE FROM THE COASTAL ZONE DUE TO
EXPECTED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. OTHERS SHOULD COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS INCLUDING BOARDING UP WINDOWS...SECURING DOORS AND
GARAGE DOORS...AND CHECKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS TO
HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES. AT LEAST SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
EXPECTED..AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TONIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE LAGUNA
MADRE OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER
SLOWING COULD RAISE POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY MID
AFTERNOON...GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS HEAD INLAND.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AND
BECOMING NEAR CERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

DANGEROUS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE!

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS
WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL
HAVE DAMAGE...SOME COULD BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW 80 TO 95 PERCENT
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS IS NOW AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER
CELLS WITHIN THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE IS SCHEDULED TO BE ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT.

$$

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HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

INITIAL FEEDER BANDS WILL RACE ASHORE FROM SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TO
BROWNSVILLE BEFORE NOON...AND ANOTHER BAND WILL REACH INTO WILLACY
AND THE REMAINDER OF CAMERON COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. EACH
BAND WILL INCLUDE A 15 MINUTE OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AS WELL AS BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST BELOW 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE LATER TODAY WHILE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BENDING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
LATER TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT. IT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN FOR AT
LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS
SOME COMMUNITIES OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
POPULATED SECTION OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS FROM HARLINGEN TO BROWNSVILLE SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
LAST MINUTE PREPAREDNESS AND PROTECTION. MOBILE HOME AND
RECREATIONAL VEHICLE RESIDENTS MAY WISH TO EVACUATE FROM AREAS
SUCH AS BROWNSVILLE...INDIAN LAKE...AND LOS FRESNOS DUE TO THE
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. OTHERS
SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS INCLUDING BOARDING UP WINDOWS...SECURING
DOORS AND GARAGE DOORS...AND CHECKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
KITS TO HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES. SHOULD HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCUR...
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE LIKELY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THROUGH TONIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE LAGUNA
MADRE OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER
SLOWING COULD RAISE POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY MID
AFTERNOON...GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS HEAD INLAND.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
BECOMING NEAR CERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLY ARRIVING TO BROWNSVILLE AND PERHAPS HARLINGEN BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME
ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE
BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF
PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO
CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW 80 TO 95 PERCENT
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...EXCEPT 70 TO 80 PERCENT IN HIDALGO COUNTY...WHILE
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NOW AROUND 20
PERCENT...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT IN HIDALGO COUNTY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

OUTER RAIN BANDS COULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS COMMUNITIES AWAY FROM
THE COAST PERHAPS AS SOON AS NOON...AND COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TOWARD EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA NOW SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS
CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY SEVERE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN RAINS ARE MORE
PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY!

PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER TODAY. IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET. OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS MAIN ROADS
WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING WILL BE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT FOR
EMERGENCIES DURING AND AFTER THE HEAVY RAINS.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLLY MOVE INLAND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT IS NEXT SCHEDULED TO BE UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ248-249-252-222000-
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ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY IS NOW STRENGTHENING AND MAY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...AND IS ALSO SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOTION. SHOULD DOLLY
CONTINUE MOVING AT 10 MPH OR MORE...THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
WESTERN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED
TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL OF UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY EVENING. WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS IN
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM IS NOW 55 TO 70 PERCENT...WHILE
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NOW AROUND 5 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

OUTER RAIN BANDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY EARLY RAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS BEYOND WHEN RAINS ARE MORE
PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 130 PM CDT.

$$

52/BSG


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