[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL
DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 8N. DESPITE THE GOOD ORGANIZATION OF STRUCTURE...CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED PATCHES
OF DEEP CLOUDINESS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 70W/71W
S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
67W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W EQ48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N88W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING COVERS THE SRN GULF
DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 18N92W.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
89W-92W. FURTHER SOUTH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER SRN GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.
OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLUMBIA AND N WRN VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 67W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
INLAND CUBA W OF 80W...AND OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N. IN
GENERAL...MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  THE BASE OF A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES MAY
CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N39W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N
AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
62W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA





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