[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE
WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE GOOD ORGANIZATION
OF STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
10N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED
PATCHES OF DEEP CLOUDINESS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 12N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 72W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND TOGETHER AIDING IN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND ACROSS E COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N18W 4N31W 3N35W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 19W-26W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N90W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS. NWLY
FLOW ALOFT COVERS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER RESIDES ACROSS W CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG TO
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS DRY AIR IS
SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS S MEXICO...REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
S GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20-25 KT. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FROM W CUBA WSW ACROSS THE S
GULF...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE
FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS W HONDURAS AND S
BELIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COLOMBIA
COASTLINE IN RESPONSE TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NEARBY REGION. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TRADES
ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W
OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA IN
THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 75W-79W. MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CUBA...THE S BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING
COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
61W-67W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. IN THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR
32N40W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO
NEAR 22N33W AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM AFRICA ALONG
11N E OF 25W. ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE W
AFRICAN COAST AND 30W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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