[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEAL A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE GOOD
ORGANIZATION OF STRUCTURE...ONLY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
EXHIBITS THE INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF
DEEP CLOUDINESS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N
OF 13N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 73W/74W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND IS PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N14W 2N25W 4N32W 5N38W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS. N-NWLY FLOW
ALOFT COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER RESIDES ACROSS W CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG TO MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS S MEXICO...REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
20-25 KT CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE S GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS S OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE FROM W CUBA WSW ACROSS THE S GULF...TO N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 18N93W. BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES S MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG COASTAL BELIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COLOMBIA
COASTLINE IN RESPONSE TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NEARBY REGION. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TRADES
ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W
OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N71W TO 29N74W IN THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CUBA...THE
CENTRAL AND S BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING COVERS
MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 59W-68W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. IN THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 32N40W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N33W
AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N E OF
25W. ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE W AFRICAN COAST
AND 30W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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