[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 31W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
10N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. 24 HOUR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE 1 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 61W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING
W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK AS THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING
S OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 65W-78W. THIS CONVECTION IS
MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N26W 7N34W 7N39W 3N44W
2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS N OF 23N. ALOFT STRONG TO MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. A 1005
MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 21N95W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 21N. ALOFT ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A
1005 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-95W DUE LARGELY
IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN GENERAL...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL
SALVADOR. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA. THIS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN
64W-77W WHICH INCLUDES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE E OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 45W
WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO E CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 27N74W OVER THE W
ATLC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-67W. IN ADDITION TO
THE OVERALL TROUGHING IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 32N53W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SRN
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AIDING IN SUSTAINING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 64W-75W.
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS E OF 45W LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD N OF 17N. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N38W DOMINATING MOST OF
THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON ITS S PERIPHERY.

$$
HUFFMAN




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