[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 33W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9N-12N.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 33W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DISTINGUISHED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
PATTERN OBSERVED BUT THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK AS THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING S
OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS
MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...E CUBA AND JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 2N29W 4N36W 5N41W 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING
OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM FROM A LINE 5N23W TO 7N31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 5-10 KT WINDS N OF 23N. ALOFT STRONG TO MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND N GULF
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W
CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO 21N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ALOFT ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA S OF 22N. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE W
GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S
MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A
1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-91W DUE LARGELY IN PART TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-84W. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 74W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
EL SALVADOR. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA. MORE RELAXED
TROUGHING THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.
THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W-77W WHICH INCLUDES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE UNDER
THIS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE SE
BAHAMAS TO E CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO 19N73W ACROSS E
HISPANIOLA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 64W-74W OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS E OF 55W LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD N
OF 17N. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 37N37W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON ITS S
PERIPHERY.

$$
HUFFMAN




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