[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 15W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS WAVE AMPLITUDE N TO
NEARLY THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
DEEP CONVECTION IS ENTIRELY ABSENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 17N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH
MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 4N15W 7N21W 6N26W 4N30W 6N39W
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-14N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N9W
TO 3N18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
5N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM 6N30W TO 6N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
COVERS THE GULF N OF 25N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF
25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
CONFINED INLAND OVER S MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND AN AREA ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 91W-94W DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SW
LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
15-20 KT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE N OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DEEPENING THE
TROUGH TO THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA COVERS THE SE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N
OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA INHIBITING ANY SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG COASTAL NICARAGUA...PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N22N BETWEEN 67W-74W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA
THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 60W-63W. LARGE UPPER LOW
COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N26W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DRY UPPER AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER. THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR 37N31W.
TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICS E OF 50W.

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net