[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 14W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS WAVE AMPLITUDE N TO
JUST SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AND ANY CONVECTION IS MOSTLY LIKELY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W S OF 17N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH
MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N24W 5N28W 5N37W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
10W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF THE EQUATOR
TO 2N BETWEEN 22W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 5N41W TO 11N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF
26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
CONFINED INLAND OVER S MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND AN AREA ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 91W-96W DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
92W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SW LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH
THE LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US...MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF W OF 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE N OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA
DEEPENING THE TROUGH TO THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA
COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA INHIBITING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG COASTAL
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N65W TO N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA THROUGH
THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR
30N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 58W-63W. LARGE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 32N25W BUT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER.
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032
MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR
36N33W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICS E OF 50W.

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net