[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE...WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N66W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF
70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
87W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 7N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-4N
BETWEEN 10W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 16W-28W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. BRISK 15-20 KT SWLY
WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 20N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W
PRODUCING NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW E OF 90W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM W HONDURAS TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE LINE 14N88W
19N98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W.
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N46W TO 30N47W
29N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 42W-45W. A LARGE 1029
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N17W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
29N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A WELL DEFINED LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
67W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A LARGE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
15N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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