[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 42W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL PORTRAYS AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
93W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 3N30W 5N44W 4N50W ENTERING
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W PRODUCING NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR
26N79W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 95W. EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 24N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW HONDURAS FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN
88W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W.
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N38W TO 29N40W
26N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 36W-40W. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N25W 25N30W 20N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A
WELL DEFINED LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS W OF 74W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-74W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 15N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA



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