[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE MOST
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N79W TO INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N24W 6N41W 4N52W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 45
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 14W. LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 35W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 14W-35W AND 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPLEX UPPER LEVELS COVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE INLAND OVER SW MEXICO INTO THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF
93W...AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE NE TEXAS COAST...AN UPPER LOW OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W
COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE CENTRAL GULL.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE
AGAIN FLARED UP INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SE US
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF E MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR THIS
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP
LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W
OF 75W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE AGAIN FLARED
UP OVER HISPANIOLA BUT REMAIN INLAND. THE E CARIBBEAN IS SHOWER
FREE THIS EVENING BUT IS UNDER DENSE HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE
WED/EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF
76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF THE FLORIDA E COAST S OF 27N AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND ALL OF THE GEORGIA COAST. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 30W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N31W SW TO 27N39W THEN
CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 28N BETWEEN 30W-40W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC E OF 55W S OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH AND AS FAR N AS THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 9W/10W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND NOW
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N32W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A THIN LAYER OF DUST MOVING OFF W
AFRICA TO NEAR 35W.

$$
WALLACE


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