[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 25N MOVING
W 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 6N40W 11N57W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
36W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  RESIDUAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N89W...AND OVER NE FLORIDA AT 30N80W. EXPECT CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY
OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 83W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN
33W-41W DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER WITH AXIS FROM 32N23W TO 26N30W
21N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA
IS PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF
20N E OF 45W.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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