[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
25 TO 30 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW DATA SHOW THE MOISTURE FIELD
WITH THIS WAVE QUITE WELL.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING 20 TO 25 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...
DISSIPATING WITH TIME...WERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N/23N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 5N20W 4N31W 2N37W 4N42W 6N45W 5N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W...AND
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W
TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W TO 26N91W. A SECOND
TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 24N93W
21N94W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
81W IN FLORIDA AND 95W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N94W. REMNANT PRECIPITATION MAY BE LINGERING
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N62W TO A CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N75W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE 11N80W 15N70W 17N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W IS
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 43W IS MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. EXPECT
THAT WAVE TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N17W NORTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS...
TO 29N28W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N41W TO A THIRD
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N62W...CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TO A FOURTH CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N75W.

$$
MT

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