[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 3S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 14W-25W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 3W-6W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS IN THE GULF TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS GREATLY WEAKENED FROM
S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W
22N90W. THIS BOUNDARY IS MAINLY STATIONARY EXCEPT FOR THE W
PORTION WHICH IS DRIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A LINE OF NUMEROUS TSTMS E OF THE AREA OVER
THE W ATLC WATERS WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE
GULF NEAR 27N90W. THESE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION TOMORROW
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS INDUCING SLIGHT TROUGHING
OVER THE NE PORTION WHILE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WELL IN
CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN WATERS. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 15N E OF 78W. THIS FAIRLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES
WHICH APPEAR THICKEST S OF HISPANIOLA. QUICK MOVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATCH S OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE EXTREME SW PORTION WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE TO 30 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
NEARLY STALLED FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO S FLORIDA.
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/SHEAR IS PRODUCING A FAIRLY ACTIVE LINE OF TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT...SOME HAVE BEEN STRONG IN SE
FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 45W
AND THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYERED HIGH
PRES RIDGE...SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER.
THE SFC CENTER IS ANALYZED 1032 MB NEAR 37N53W.

E OF THERE...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1009 MB LOW DROPPING SWD INTO
THE AREA NEAR 33N38W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS ON THE E SIDE OF
THE LOW FROM 32N34W TO 30N34W THEN CONTINUES SW AS A COLD FRONT
TO 24N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N AND WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT. THE TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE 1032 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE LOW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO LIE IN A WEAK PRES PATTERN
ALLOWING WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A 1930Z QSCAT PASS
SHOWED A WEAK BENIGN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N20W
...NEVERTHELESS LIKELY WILL ADD A LOW TO REFLECT THIS AT 00Z.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 5N16W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY E OF
25W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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