[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N16W 1N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION WITH A
MEAN AXIS ALONG 86W. THIS UPPER SYSTEM FEATURE IS PROVIDING
LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO S MISSISSIPPI. ONLY PATCHY
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG SE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WRN GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH OVER SRN VIRGINIA AND A LOW PRES
TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO.  THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH
GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE LOW PRES AREA...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NEARS THE NW PORTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT LIES JUST N OF THE CARIB SEA ACROSS
THE SRN BAHAMAS AND NRN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTY NLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE...BEING STRETCHED
BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE ATLC...EXTENDS FROM NRN VENEZUELA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY E OF 80W....SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STEERED WWD BY THE TRADES...MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHERE THERE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A POWERFUL 966 MB LOW LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 40N57W
PULLS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM 32N52W TO 23N67W AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE ROPE CLOUD EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND IT.
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY IS THE WINDS
REACHING HURCN FORCE N OF THE AREA AND TO GALE FORCE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA N OF 25N.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS FAIRLY QUIET. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ALONG 33W FROM 26N-31N...WHICH LIES BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...IS PRODUCING PATCHY CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 27W-35W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN AND
FAIRLY FLAT UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING CONDITIONS TRANQUIL.

$$
CANGIALOSI/WALTON

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