[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-19W...
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-29W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W MOVING E.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N85W 21N87W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  FURTHER N...A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS TO N MEXICO ALONG
30N80W 28N86W 28N97W 29N105W.  VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG THIS FRONT.  MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH HAS 10-20 KT NLY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 86W COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N AND E OF 96W.  EXPECT..THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH S AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE NE CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA IS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-82W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.  EXPECT...SOME SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W
CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW OVER S FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W TO 29N78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N69W TO 28N76W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N51W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
29N22W 26N21W 19N27W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N20W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W IN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO EXTEND FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N22W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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