[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE IVORY COAST/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 5N8W TO 1N16W 1N24W...
TO THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL EAST-WEST ORIENTED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/TEXAS/MEXICO/THE GULF OF MEXICO/
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 114W. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE THAT
IS ALONG 88W/89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N74W TO 30N81W...TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SEPARATE BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
10N THAT IS SPREADING ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W AT
THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH...AND FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES
OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 78W. THE
COMPARATIVELY MOST PROMINENT LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW
STARTS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA AND EXTENDS TO WESTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH 36N59W TO 29N52W...
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N56W
TO 26N62W. A FRONTAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE
SAME BOUNDARY FROM 26N62W TO 23N66W. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE FROM 23N66W
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N77W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N48W 28N52W 26N56W 25N60W 24N66W...AND FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
63W AND 73W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 45W TO AFRICA.
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 27N27W
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N23W TO 24N34W 20N43W TO 16N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

$$
MT




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