[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W/17W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N15W TO 8N19W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N1W 2N9W 5N14W THEN FROM 2N19W
1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 36W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC N
THROUGH THE NE GULF INTO THE SE US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY
STABLE AIR MASS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH ONLY A
FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS POSITIONED
ACROSS NW LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. MODERATE/STRONG SE SURFACE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 13N. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA W OF 70W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE E TIP OF
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...TO THE VIRGIN/N LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 60W BETWEEN
15N-19N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT W BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE MID
ATLC STATES IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N70W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 65W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 35N54W AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W 24N54W TO THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 60W BETWEEN 15N-19N WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
15N-19N W OF 57W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO LINGER
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N25W 27N31W 21N47W TO 16N53W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 40W-50W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC MAINLY UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN/WALLACE


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