[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE IVORY COAST/LIBERIA BORDER ALONG 6N/7N TO 7N18W...6N20W
4N30W 3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF 5N3W-THE EQUATOR AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 42W...AND SOUTH 6N BETWEEN
42W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W...
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH 31N94W IN EAST TEXAS TO 27N99W
IN SOUTH TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND CONTINUES TO 16N68W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 25N50W TO
20N60W AND TO 18N65W JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N56W 21N60W
19N62W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 57W AND 61W AT THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N78W 18N83W 20N86W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 28N56W TO 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 25N50W
TO 20N60W...AND 18N65W ABOUT 30 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE
THROUGH 32N35W 27N44W 23N56W 21N60W 19N62W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 60W TO AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES THROUGH 31N24W TO 27N30W 24N40W TO 18N51W...
POSSIBLY TO 17N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT

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