[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE WAS
READJUSTED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SLOWER SPEED. WAVE HAS A WELL
DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N2W 2N13W 5N18W THEN 3N23W
2N32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 45W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST CLIPPING THE N GULF COAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR
VERMILION BAY EXTENDING SW OVER S TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. A
SQUALL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE SE
OF THE ACTUAL FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N91W 27N88W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR
ARE OVER THE SE GULF WITH A SIMILAR AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS DUE TO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE...THE GULF REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO W CUBA. A
LINGERING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE VIRGIN/N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N E OF
69W ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED FAST MOVING CIRRUS CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA NE
ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPPING S INTO THE
N CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF THE
REGION. A LINGERING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N38W ALONG 22N51W TO THE VIRGIN/N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N46W TO 30N33W AND WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM 22N54W TO ACROSS THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 32N28W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 11N25W TO
4N28W PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W WITH A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
25N27W. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE
REGIONS OF THE SURFACE RIDGES.

$$
WALLACE




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