[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
EQ-2N BETWEEN 2W-5W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 26W-35W... AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W.  A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES W TO S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONTS. 10-15 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONTS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SELY WINDS
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND
OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING BACK UP THE TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 17N60W TO GUADELOUPE.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 14N AND E OF 62W.  MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA E OF 70W.
ONLY MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
25N48W TO 20N53W 17N60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N20W
TO 25N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N57W.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 50W.  IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N29W.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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